"THEY'RE EATING YOUR BABIES!!!"
- Sep 21
- 4 min read
Updated: Oct 31
The Vancouver Sun just published "Crime destroying B.C. downtowns, municipal leaders warn." Many other news outlets offered similar reporting. Just a couple weeks ago it was "'When a street dies, a city dies': B.C. businesses say disorder, crime jeopardizing their survival." The trouble here is, well, that none of this is happening. We actually have good data on criminal code violations and crime severity in British Columbia (and around the country). And if you go looking you will find all the things you might want and expect, like the number of incidents and the rate per capita, those disaggregated into adult and youth cohorts, etc…
Despite the suggestion that the crime situation today is horrific and maybe even unprecedented, when you contrast the 2020s with, say, the 1990s you’re less likely to come away wondering why things are so bad (or offering your own hypothesis for why: “social media!”, “video games!”, “comic books!”, “jazz music!”, “the waltz!”, “discordant tones!”) and more likely, instead, to feel surprised, shocked even, at how we made it to the peaceful, nearly-utopic present. But don’t take my word for it, go look for yourself.
The rate for all criminal code violations in BC in 1998, for example, was almost twice what it was last year, in 2024 (13,152 per 100,000 population vs 7,489). For youth (12 to 17 years old) over that same period, the crime rate positively collapsed, down from 4,517 to just 710. “The kids are not okay!” And, in case you’re wondering, that decline isn’t explained by something like cannabis legalization or drug decriminalization. Just as you would expect, you can dig down to specific crimes on the Statistics Canada site. Doing so reveals drops, often huge drops, in virtually all the crimes folks care about. Homicides, for instance, dropped from 2.3 instances per 100,000 population to 1.6. That’s not a small decline and the same downward trend exists with nearly everything else (1998 to 2024):
Attempted murder 2.7 to 1.0
Aggravated sexual assault 0.7 to 0.2
Criminal harassment 88 to 41
Motor vehicle theft 736 to 155
For the kinds of crimes downtown small businesses might be especially concerned about:
Breaking and entering 1,643 to 291
Robbery 161 to 47
Theft under $5,000 1,508 to 607
Counterfeiting 6.2 to 0.3
And, just to be clear, these past and present contrasts look the same in all the major cities in the province I can find data for. This is exactly how it looks in my own city of Victoria, for example. Victoria’s Crime Severity Index was between 150 and 110 in the '90s and plunged to between 80 and 60 over the last decade on record. And both violent and non-violent crimes saw similar halvings. The same is true in much smaller towns, like Prince Rupert. So, it may be that certain places have seen spikes in specific crimes or the crime profile has shifted over a decade or two but is anyone really suggesting police are blind to those or failing to do what they can while working with governments and businesses? Not only is no one really saying that is so but I don't see how it could be the case. All these reports say that we as a society have "normalized" serious crime. This is simply asserted. But what are these crimes? Violent and non-violent crimes are down. And I've never seen or heard evidence of anyone, least of all a panicky employee or business owner, inured to (and thus failing to report) massive thefts or regular assaults. Do insurance companies, security firms, emergency rooms, glass shops, and locksmiths know that no one is calling in, reporting to police, being treated for, or claiming any of their stabbings, broken windows, or break-ins? "We just accept it now!" Is that really the argument? In a world newly overflowing with cheap cameras (in every pocket, on every door frame, inside every lobby, behind every shop counter, atop every roof and street post...) and paired with a wildly over-enthusiastic citizen journalist (and crime voyeurist) population? You think folks are deliberately avoiding or simply failing to report murders, car thefts, home invasions, or fraud? No. I can't see any reason to believe we're suffering from a lack of documentation or reporting. No chance. I mean, if anything, we're busy inventing faux-crimes, novel harms, manufacturing fights, and worrying ourselves about those perpetrated in other nations due to the increasing rarity of real, organic drama to report in our own neighbourhoods and personal lives... Perhaps there's an elaborate conspiracy to hide evidence of real crimes by local and federal police and the folks at Statistics Canada? Well, obviously there's not much I could offer to refute that if that's your claim.
So what's happening? And what is the real claim being made? That mayors and business associations have better data than the police or Stats Can? Maybe they do. If that’s the case, let’s see it. Rather than that, the best of their supporting documents for ever-worsening crime on all fronts, unspecified crimes that are destroying their businesses and making life impossible, are surveys of business owners’ and their employees’ feelings. I don't know why we would reject the actual data for calls for service, reported crimes, or criminal convictions and instead, as seems to be the demand, seek to base policy solely on the isolated perceptions or intuitions of 16-year-olds or a Tim Horton's franchisee — who may not live or spend time in the neighbourhood and may be afraid to leave their house for all the catastrophizing across the press...
So, to me, this whole “crime is skyrocketing” or “destroying downtown” narrative (arriving almost daily in local papers and national broadcasts alike and pressed home again and again online) looks far more like a mass panic or a someone’s political campaign and less like a reality anyone (let alone everyone) could possibly be experiencing. Of course, I could be perfectly wrong. But where’s the evidence?
MASS PANIC REFERENCE SHEET
Retail Insider, 2024 - Retailers in British Columbia Demand Government Action as Crime and Safety Concerns Reach Crisis Point
Downtown Victoria Business Association, 2025 - 2025 Report on Downtown: A Wake up Call
Open Victoria Police Department, 2024 - Community Safety Report Card
Business Improvement Areas of BC, 2025 - Businesses and staff need safe, secure workplaces
Statistics Canada, 2024 - Crime severity index and weighted clearance rates
