MARSHMALLOW TEST
- Sep 12
- 2 min read
Updated: Sep 22
Someone I like and follow on the internet was using the Marshmallow Test as an analogy. That famous test, of course, put in front of kids a plate of marshmallows and asked them to abstain from eating them for a period of time to see if they could delay gratification, the results of which were then said to be predictive of outcomes later in life. Trouble is, like so many such studies in 20th century psychology, this test was always bunk and the results were predictive of nothing; though it may have been telling us which of those kids had shitty, unreliable adults in their lives... but that was not what the test was looking at.
I mentioned to the person making the analogy that, unless they were trying to say the opposite of what I believed they intended, they may wish to reword things. Naturally, as ever, they told me I was clearly stupid and wrong. Too, naturally (as ever), all their friends felt the same and thought I should understand that fact. That I was referencing a decade of new research and modern attempts to reproduce those old findings only highlighted my ignorance.
My ignorance:
2018: The ability to delay gratification at age four is a much weaker predictor of academic achievement and adjustment than initially claimed. Associations between delay time and measures of behavioral outcomes at age 15 were much smaller and rarely statistically significant.
2020: With the marshmallow waiting times, we found no statistically meaningful relationships with any of the mid-life outcomes that we studied, including: forward-looking behaviors, educational attainment, absence of high-interest debt, permanent income, and net worth.
2024: These findings suggest that delay of gratification as measured by the Marshmallow Test is not an early skill that predicts long-term trajectories. Results on this test do not strongly predict adult achievement, health, or behavior.
