THE COMING TRUMPOCALYPSE or ECONOMICS IS NOT A SCIENCE
- 2 days ago
- 7 min read
Updated: 7 hours ago
Probably the biggest and most lasting news story of 2025, even here in Canada, was the pending total economic collapse of the US and, as a result, likely that of the world. US consumer spending and GDP was supposed to crater. The imposition of tariffs and general Trumpist chaos was going to further worsen global trade and result, at the very least, in a global trade war — but perhaps translate into a world war — by the end of 2025. These were the predictions of the moderate pundits and mainstream, even Nobel Laureate, economists in the popular press and all arriving weekly from the end of 2024 and throughout all of 2025.
A select sample of predictions from US and international sources over six months:
Oct 15, 2025 - Trump’s economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say
Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter in June expressing fear that Trump’s proposals would “reignite’’ inflation … Last month, the Peterson Institute for International Economics predicted that Trump’s policies — the deportations, import taxes and efforts to erode the Fed’s independence — would drive consumer prices sharply higher two years into his second term. Peterson’s analysis concluded that inflation, which would otherwise register 1.9% in 2026, would instead jump to between 6% and 9.3% if Trump’s economic proposals were adopted.
Oct 30, 2024 - Almost Half of Americans Think ‘Total Economic Collapse’ Is Coming: Poll
Almost half of Americans think that there will be "total economic collapse" in the United States in the next decade, a survey suggests. According to a new YouGov poll, when asked how likely this is, 44 percent of respondents said they believe it is likely — 15 percent said "very likely," and 29 percent said "somewhat likely."
Nov 8, 2024 - US Dollar Crisis: 2025
Peter Schiff is already predicting a doomsday scenario for 2025, as he is of the opinion that the coming year will see the US dollar tumbling down the hill, leading the US economy into a crash. If that is not enough, the veteran market analyst is also of the opinion that long-term interest prices would also see a sharp rise, that would ultimately lead to a major pressure falling on the Americans' pockets.
Nov 27, 2024 - Trump’s tariff plan will send prices ‘through the roof’, warn US firms
While the president-elect repeatedly pledged before the election to draw a line under inflation, “the exact opposite will happen” if he introduces tariffs as wide-ranging as he has threatened, cautioned Herman. “You will get runaway inflation, and possibly send the economy into a bad place – possibly a recession.”
Dec 11, 2024 - Prepare for Guacamole to be a Luxury Item
Just as a reminder to the incoming administration, about two-thirds of vegetables and almost half of fruit and nut imports to the United States come from Mexico. And how many avocados? Ninety percent.
Dec 27, 2024 - Will We Have a Recession in 2025?
The survey of more than 20 economists found that, on average, respondents say they predict 1.9% GDP growth in 2025.
Jan 27, 2025 - Ocasio-Cortez: ‘Trump is all about making inflation WORSE’
“To ‘punish’ Colombia, Trump is about to make every American pay even more for coffee,” the New York Democrat said on the social platform X. “Remember: *WE* pay the tariffs, not Colombia,” she added. “Trump is all about making inflation WORSE for working class Americans, not better. He’s lining the pockets of himself and the billionaire class.”
Jan 31, 2025 - Why Trump tariffs will be ‘very bad for America and for the world’
“Virtually all economists think that the impact of the tariffs will be very bad for America and for the world,” said Joseph Stiglitz, an economics professor at Columbia University and a winner of the Nobel prize in economic sciences. “They will almost surely be inflationary.”
Feb 1, 2025 - Trump’s Tariffs: Another Disaster for the Families Who’ve Lost Everything
The double-whammy of deportations and tariffs could prove devastating for recovery efforts. “Trump’s tariffs are insane, not to put it into too-technical language. And the timing couldn’t be worse,” says Joseph Stiglitz, a prominent economist at Columbia University who was awarded the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize for economics.
Feb 10, 2025 - America’s House of Cards is Crumbling
Trump is going to collapse the U.S. economy. That much is inevitable. The only question is whether it’s a slow, agonizing death or a catastrophic implosion.
Feb 13, 2025 - Trump's tariff plan would raise inflation and cost U.S. jobs, economist
Chief Economist @ Moody’s Analytics: …just the tariffs on Chinese imports in the U.S., the 10 percent tariff that President Trump just imposed, if sustained, that will reduce the real purchasing power of the typical American family by between $200 and $250 a year. So just do the arithmetic. You can -- the impacts will be very serious. And then it's going to cost jobs, because it's unimaginable that the rest of the world is just going to stand still. … And, of course, that's going to cost American jobs. And at the end of the day, it's not only going to raise inflation and the cost of living. It's going to reduce the amount of jobs and the strength of the economy.
Mar 10 , 2025 - Cracks are forming in America’s economy. Trump is a big reason why
Consumer confidence in February registered its biggest monthly decline since August 2021 and fell the most to start a year since 2009, according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. … Consumers aren’t spending as much as they used to, as concerns about the economy weigh on their purchasing decisions. Both Target and Walmart said in their most recent earnings reports that tariffs and inflation are leading people to spend less.
Mar 10, 2025 - Risk of ‘Trumpcession’ rising, economists say, as global markets fall
Morgan Stanley cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%. ‘While we did expect growth-constraining policies (tariffs and immigration controls) to precede growth-supportive initiatives (tax cuts and deregulation), their severity has been greater than we anticipated. This is especially the case with tariffs, which have come in faster and broader than we had pencilled in,’ it said.
Mar 11, 2025 - Goldman Sachs’ chief economist just downgraded the entire U.S. economy
Goldman’s GDP growth projection for 2025 now sits at 1.7%, down from 2.4% at the start of the year. … With recession fears mounting, a widely respected economist at Goldman Sachs has decided to downgrade the entire U.S. economy.
Mar 14, 2025 - Donald Trump Is Crashing the Economy, but Wall Street Is Afraid
The stock market is in a tizzy, and the fault is not hard to find: Donald Trump. The S&P 500 is down 10.1 percent from its peak a month ago, which means technically we’re in a “correction.” If this slide continues on its current trajectory, it won’t be long before the correction turns into an outright crash, bringing in its wake a recession.
Mar 16, 2025 - Is the U.S. Heading Into a Recession Under Trump?
…the current indicators are trending downwards, and if they continue in that direction, it will spell trouble for the economy. The U.S. consumer market saw a sharp decline last month for the first time in over two years, which Jacquez says is starting “to indicate that the resilient consumer is no longer spending at the pace that they used to be.” Consumer inflation expectations also soared in February.
Mar 18, 2025 - Slower economic growth is likely ahead with risk of a recession rising
Probability of a recession rose to 36% from 23% in January, according to the CNBC Fed Survey, which polls fund managers, strategists and analysts. The average 2025 GDP forecast declined to 1.7% from 2.4% with tariffs now seen as the top threat to the U.S. economy, replacing inflation. “A global trade war, haphazard DOGE cuts to government jobs and funding, aggressive immigrant deportations, and dysfunction in DC threaten to push what was an exceptionally performing economy into recession,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Analytics.
Mar 26, 2025 - Why Trump's Tariffs Are a Losing Bet
Trump’s plans around tariffs and annexation resemble a new Monroe Doctrine, but it’s a recipe that only leads to economic collapse—and war.
Mar 30, 2025 - Companies are slashing their earnings forecasts as consumer confidence about the future reaches 12-year low
As confidence in the economic outlook fades, consumers are slowing their spending, and businesses are lowering their earnings forecasts.
Apr 7, 2025 - Bill Ackman urges Trump to pause ‘economic nuclear war on every country’
Donald Trump supporter and billionaire fund manager Bill Ackman has said the president is losing the confidence of business leaders and should pause his trade war – which could cause an economic collapse while damaging his supporters the most.
Apr 25, 2025 - What Would Be Worse Than a Recession?
When Donald Trump took office in January, analysts at Goldman Sachs estimated that the economy had a 15 percent chance of entering a recession over the next 12 months. Today, with the world engulfed in a trade war, they see a 45 percent chance. J.P. Morgan puts the risk at 60 percent. Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, a private-equity firm, believes that a contraction is pretty much guaranteed.
So, with all that in the forecast, what actually transpired in 2025?
High tariffs increased government revenue while failing to trigger runaway inflation as predicted. Tariffs are estimated to have contributed perhaps 0.5% to the year-over-year inflation spike of 3% in September of 2025.
Consumer spending rose significantly, particularly on services, demonstrating households' desire and ability to keep spending (and was the key driver in positive GDP on the year.)
Real GDP in the US grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2 (April–June) and accelerated to 4.3% in Q3 (July–September) of 2025, driven by robust consumer spending, exports, and government spending. The results are not yet out for Q4 but the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model today estimates 5.1% in annualized growth for Q4 of 2025.
The US dollar saw a notable decline in 2025, down around 9.5% on the year, with the sharpest drop early in the year and stabilization later on. Far from being unusual, comparable declines have been seen every decade over the last sixty years.
Major US market indices were all up in 2025:
The S&P 500 rose 18% (total return including dividends)
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up about 20%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose roughly 13%
Core investment-grade bonds were up 7%
Average consumer costs:
Avocados:
2024: $1.43/lb
2025: $1.22/lb
Bananas:
2024: $0.63/lb
2025: $0.66/lb
Potatoes:
2024: $1.15/lb
2025: $1.01/lb
Chicken:
2024: $2.05/lb
2025: $2.07/lb
Tofu:
2024: $2.60/lb
2025: $2.60/lb
Rice:
2024: $1.06/lb
2025: $1.05/lb
Bread:
2024: $1.98
2025: $1.79
Peanut butter:
2024: $4.75
2025: $4.66
Milk:
2024: $3.98/gal
2025: $4.42/gal
Cup of coffee:
2024: $3.50
2025: $3.57
Gas:
2024: $3.31/gal
2025: $3.10/gal
Electricity:
2024: $16.47/kWh
2025: $17.27/kWh
In this light, would you be better off listening to a Nobel-winning economist or casting lots?
